2014/12/23

Why the oil price is falling

 


--Abstract from Why the oil price is falling / ECOCN


 


THE oil price has fallen by more than 40% since Jun
This comes after nearly five years of stability.



The oil price is partly determined by
actual supply and demand
and partly by expectation.


Demand for energy is closely related to economic activity.


It also spikes in the winter in the northern hemisphere
and during summers in countries which use air conditioning



Supply can be affected by weather
which prevents tankers loading


and by geopolitical upsets


If producers think the price is staying high
they invest after a lag boosts supply


low prices lead to an investment drought.


 


OPEC's decisions shape expectations


if it curbs supply sharply
it can send prices spiking.


--------------------


Four things are now affecting the picture


 


Demand is low


because of weak economic activity
increased efficiency
and a growing switch away from oil to other fuels.



Second
turmoil in Iraq and Libya
has not affected their output


Thirdly
America has become the world's largest oil producer


Though it does not export crude oil
it now imports much less


 


Finally
the Saudis and their Gulf allies
have decided not to sacrifice their own market share
to restore the price


They could curb production sharply
but the main benefits would go to countries they detest
such as Iran and Russia


Saudi Arabia can tolerate lower oil prices quite easily


It has $900 billion in reserves
Its own oil costs very littleo get out of the ground


--------------------


The main effect of this
is on the riskiest and most vulnerable bits
of the oil industry.


These include American frackers
who have borrowed heavily on the expectation of continuing high prices.


They also include Western oil companies
with high-cost projects


But the greatest pain
is in countries where the regimes are dependent on a high oil price
to pay for foreign adventures and social programmes.


These include Russia
which is already hit by Western sanctions
following its meddling in Ukrain

and Iran
which is paying to keep the Assad regime afloat in Syria)


 


 


 


 


2014/12/17

Chef

 


他看著辛勤工作一天的報酬
銀亮的刀面映照他發著光的眼睛


 



伸出雙手
從湖中女神手中小心翼翼的接過


他第一把 Chef's Knife
鍍金的鑰匙



旋開上鎖的門
爸爸牽著他的手 踏上成為大人的階梯


 


 


或許很多很多年以後
他依然珍藏著那把刀



想著那雙操弄著它的手


粗短
卻輕巧


肥厚
卻穩重



刀鋒剁碎菜葉花果 如擊鼓的槌
刀尖划過油花肌理 如拉弦的弓


 


記憶中他下廚的段落
接續為連篇的樂章



優雅
輕快



記憶中滿桌的菜色
暈染成畫布上的釉彩



絢爛
繽紛



在暈黃的燈下
百公斤的胖子宛如歌劇廳的名伶
一雙手卻拿著畫筆舞動


 



記憶中他的神情無比專注認真
忘卻了時空的一切 卻不知疲倦


 


 


你突然很忌妒爸爸或老公或男友是廚師的人
你突然覺得很餓很餓


就在大概一百層的起司融化在吐司上的瞬間


 


 



小男孩的可愛
是電影的靈魂


從他們眼中看出去的每一天
都嶄新



沒到過的地方是一次冒險
沒看過的表演是一次慶典
沒吃過的東西是如此美味



每一點點成長 都令人興奮
每一秒鐘都佔有生命中更大的比重而珍貴隽永


 


 


 



搭上餐車
電影後段是電影台播出的旅遊美食節目


導播是商業名導
一集製作費是好萊塢大片等級



主持人是父親
來賓是他的小孩



為您介紹波士頓最著名的咖啡館
獻上德州最棒的烤肉



把搞笑和講評消音
其實你們只會鹹香鮮甜早就沒梗



錄下油泡在鐵板的耀動
拍下小麥炙燒過的金黃



那條排滿比基尼女郎的長長人龍
從上午一直到黃昏


 


當政論節目挑動仇怨暴戾


或許數不清的美食節目
陶冶這個島祥和樂天的氣質



就算他墮落腐敗沉淪鬧鬼彷彿下一秒就要沉沒
你晚上十二點餓到睡不著還是找的到好吃的東西



你並不只追求小確幸
但有時候 那是你唯一真正所能擁有而且誰都不能拿走



排隊美食根本邪惡
每一秒等待的煎熬 都讓美味呈指數翻倍


 


 



溫馨的小品
走平淡樸實的路線


沒有狗血和激情
有時候你覺得鄉土劇的人有事嗎都應該去醫院看病


 


兒子在桌上津津有味吃著父親做的早餐
分開後的兩人還像能朋友一樣



你真心祝福搶了飯碗的同事
曖昧的對象送你遠行而沒有盧洨
就算面對前男友兼前任老公兼前炮友也不覺得尷尬



他們不需要為了監護權鬧上法院
只是一句甜甜的 柔柔的 撒嬌似的


Be Careful OK~~~


 


他吼了他
然後道歉


然後
是那把刀


You Earned It


 



沒有張力
也就沒有壓力


成熟自然的感情
是一種舒服的感覺


是啊
這故事沒有壞人和車禍和絕症和哭鬧的女人
而且 Happy Ending



你並不因為主廚紆尊坐上快餐車
而自悲自嘆自怨自憐好像全世界都欠你



那是一直想做的事情
只要能做菜就覺得開心


I am Amazing



五星主廚快餐車是好好看的電影
一個人的快樂感染了每一個人



像是好吃的東西
像是歌



像是世界上所有美好的東西


 


 


只有在開頭
他激動誇張的把蛋糕砸在桌上


It Hurts



或許開始的節奏稍嫌瑣碎繁雜 不如後面輕快流麗
只是為了鋪陳這一幕 說他想說的東西


堵上部落客尖刻的嘴
提醒你螢幕後是另一個活生生的人和他火熱燃燒的心


 


 



電影置入性行銷古巴三明治
和一秒鐘電影 APP



一秒鐘 APP 實在犯規
明明說好不灑狗血不加洋蔥


 


幹你媽的這可惡的古巴三明治到底是什麼東西